Olympiakos Piraeus vs Bayer Leverkusen: Prediction, Preview, lineups

One month on from a 2–0 jolt that turned the matchup on its head, Olympiacos and Bayer Leverkusen meet again with contrasting methods and momentum. One side thrives on control, the other on compact shape and sharp transitions. The first blow landed with the Greeks; the German response now defines the tie.

Olympiacos arrive with a balanced run across all competitions. Over their last six matches, they have recorded three wins, two draws, and one defeat, conceding just 0.5 goals per game. Their attacking process has produced an average of 16.17 shots and 4.67 on target, supported by 59% possession. The model leans on sustained control before releasing runners around a central striker.

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Leverkusen’s recent form has been formidable. They are unbeaten in their last six across all competitions, winning five and drawing one, while allowing only 0.33 goals per match. Their structure remains clear: a back three stepping into midfield, width from wingbacks, and efficient shot creation at 4.83 on target per game, alongside 60.83% possession.

The previous encounter finished 2–0 to Olympiacos despite Leverkusen dominating most statistical measures. Costinha struck inside two minutes, Mehdi Taremi added a second early in the second half, and the hosts then defended with discipline. Leverkusen led shots 17–6, shots on target 6–2, and possession 72% to 28%, while producing 79 dangerous attacks to Olympiacos’ 42. The difference lay in execution and game management, with Olympiacos converting their limited chances and closing key spaces thereafter.

From the league-stage perspective, Olympiacos finished 18th with three wins, two draws, and three losses, scoring 10 and conceding 14 across eight matches. Leverkusen placed 16th with three wins, three draws, and two defeats, scoring 13 and conceding 14. The margins were thin, though the Germans carried slightly higher attacking output per game.

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Longer-term trends underline Olympiacos’ home resilience. In all competitions, they are unbeaten in 37 of their last 40 home matches, winning 68% of them, with 40% of those victories by two or more goals. Across their last 30 matches overall, they have avoided defeat 80% of the time. In Champions League home fixtures, results have been tighter, with Olympiacos winless in 83% of their last six, yet they have still kept seven clean sheets in their last 15 at home, pointing to low-margin contests where the first goal carries extra weight.

Leverkusen’s away profile is also strong. They are unbeaten in 80% of their last 20 away matches in all competitions, though half of their last six away have ended in defeat. They have won by two or more goals in 40% of their last 10 away matches, but in Champions League play specifically, 40% of their last 10 away losses have come by two-goal margins. Even so, they arrive unbeaten in their last six overall.

Olympiacos are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 with Konstantinos Tzolakis in goal; Rodinei, Panagiotis Retsos, Giulian Biancone, and Francisco Ortega in defense; Santiago Hezze and Dani García holding midfield; Gelson Martins, Chiquinho, and Daniel Podence supporting Ayoub El Kaabi in attack.

Bayer Leverkusen are likely to continue with their 3-4-2-1 shape, featuring Janis Blaswich in goal; Edmond Tapsoba, Robert Andrich, and Loïc Badé at the back; Lucas Vázquez, Exequiel Palacios, Aleix García, and Alejandro Grimaldo across midfield; with Jonas Hofmann and Malik Tillman operating behind Patrik Schick.

Expect Leverkusen to control possession and territory, while Olympiacos compress central areas and look to release Podence and Gelson in transition toward El Kaabi. The first leg showed how quickly this matchup can pivot on moments rather than volume. Given Olympiacos’ strong home resilience in all competitions and Leverkusen’s solid but occasionally fragile away curve, the balance tilts slightly toward the hosts.

Prediction: Olympiacos FC to win, with a projected probability of 40% and a narrow 2–1 scoreline.