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Under the lights in Piraeus, Olympiacos bring one of Europe’s strongest home records into a meeting with a Real Madrid side that rarely wastes a chance to punish defensive lapses. With the Greek champions desperate for their first Champions League win of the campaign and Madrid chasing top spot, this has all the ingredients of a tense tactical battle rather than a formality for the visitors.

Olympiacos arrive at this Champions League fixture in a curious position. Domestically and in other competitions they are flying, yet in Europe they are stuck near the bottom of the standings with 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from four matches. Real Madrid, by contrast, sit in a far stronger position with 3 wins and 1 defeat, and a goal difference of +6 built on eight goals scored and only two conceded. The table says one thing; the broader formbook tells a more nuanced story.

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Recent Form
Across all competitions, Olympiacos have been one of the most in form sides on the continent. In their last 6 matches they have 5 wins and 1 draw, averaging 2.67 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded. They are controlling games too, with an average of 17 total shots, 6.5 on target, and close to 58.33% possession. At home the numbers are similarly strong: in the last 3 matches in Piraeus, they have 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring 2 goals per game and conceding just 0.67.

Real Madrid’s last 6 matches in all competitions show a solid but less dominant pattern: 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 1.5 goals scored and 0.67 conceded on average. Their overall shot volume is high at 20.17 attempts per match and 7.5 on target, with 55% possession, indicative of sustained territorial control. However, their last 3 away fixtures have been more modest, with only 0.67 goals scored and 1 conceded per match, suggesting occasional issues turning pressure into goals on their travels.

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Recent History
Olympiacos’ recent history across all competitions paints them as formidable, particularly at home. Over their last 40 matches in all competitions they have won 28, and they have not been defeated in 12 of their last 15. Crucially, in Piraeus they have been close to untouchable: undefeated in 20 of their last 20 home games in all competitions, winning 10 of their last 12 and keeping 11 clean sheets in their last 20 at home.

In Champions League action, though, the picture changes sharply. Olympiacos have drawn 5 of their last 10 matches in this competition and lost 50% of their last 16. They have been winless in 14 of their last 17 Champions League fixtures, and have lost by 2 or more goals in 40% of their last 15 games at this level. Even at home in this competition they have struggled, going winless in 86% of their last 7 Champions League home matches, although they still managed 9 clean sheets in their last 20 at home in this tournament, showing they are capable of defensive resilience on the right night.

Real Madrid’s Champions League record remains strong despite a recent dip in isolated results. They have won 8 of their last 12 matches in this competition, although they have also lost 50% of their last 8, underlining that they can occasionally be caught in open games. Their long term European home record is outstanding, but away from home in all competitions they still look robust, with 50% wins in their last 20 away matches and 7 clean sheets in their last 15.

In the current Champions League campaign, Olympiacos’ defensive numbers are a concern. They have conceded 9 goals in 4 matches, an average of 2.25 per game, while scoring only 2 in total. A goal difference of minus 7 reflects a side that has struggled to translate domestic confidence to European efficiency. Real Madrid, by contrast, have scored 8 and conceded just 2 in their 4 matches, with an average of 2 scored and 0.5 conceded per game. That combination of attacking variety and defensive control explains their high position in the standings and underpins their status as favourites in this contest.

Main Trends
Olympiacos’ key trend is their contrast between domestic or all competition form and Champions League struggles. In all competitions, they have not been defeated in 100% of their last 6 matches and often win with margin, having won by 2 or more goals in 42% of their last 12 games. At home in all competitions they have also won by 2 or more goals in 9 of their last 20, reinforcing the sense of a side that usually dominates in Piraeus.

Real Madrid’s main strength lies in consistent high-level performance. In all competitions they have 11 wins and only 2 defeats in their last 15 matches, and they have not been defeated in 13 of those 15. They have also managed 7 clean sheets in their last 15 away games and have won by at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 13 matches in all competitions, as well as 5 of their last 12 away fixtures. When they do win, they often win with clear daylight.

Probable Lineups
Both sides have significant absentees to manage. Olympiacos are without goalkeepers Alexandros Paschalakis and Nikolaos Botis, as well as several outfield players due to ineligibility, which simplifies some selection choices. Real Madrid are missing key defenders Daniel Carvajal, Éder Militão and Antonio Rüdiger, reducing their depth in the back line.

Olympiacos have been consistent with a 4-2-3-1 shape in their last three matches, with Konstantinos Tzolakis preferred in goal and a settled back four of Rodinei, Panagiotis Retsos, Lorenzo Pirola and Francisco Ortega. In midfield, combinations around Santiago Hezze, Dani García, Christos Mouzakitis and Diogo Nascimento have been used, with Gelson Martins, Chiquinho and Daniel Podence supporting Ayoub El Kaabi as the lone striker.

Expected Olympiacos FC starting XI:
Goalkeeper: Konstantinos Tzolakis
Defenders: Rodinei, Panagiotis Retsos, Lorenzo Pirola, Francisco Ortega
Midfielders: Santiago Hezze, Dani García, Christos Mouzakitis, Gelson Martins, Chiquinho
Attackers: Ayoub El Kaabi

Real Madrid have alternated between a back three and various back fours, but the most stable recent choice has been a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 built around Thibaut Courtois, with Federico Valverde often filling in at right back, Álvaro Carreras on the left and Dean Huijsen in central defence. With Rüdiger and Militão sidelined, David Alaba is likely to step into central defence. In midfield, Eduardo Camavinga and Aurélien Tchouaméni give balance behind Arda Güler and Jude Bellingham, while Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé provide the main attacking threat.

Expected Real Madrid starting XI:
Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois
Defenders: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Dean Huijsen, David Alaba, Álvaro Carreras
Midfielders: Federico Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga, Arda Güler, Jude Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior
Attackers: Kylian Mbappé

Prediction
Olympiacos’ flawless home record in all competitions and their run of being undefeated in 20 of their last 20 home games suggest this will not be straightforward for Real Madrid. However, the Greek side’s Champions League history, where they have been winless in 14 of their last 17 matches and often conceded heavily, points to a familiar pattern when facing elite European opponents. Madrid’s ability to keep matches under control, combined with their scoring power through Mbappé, Bellingham and Vinícius, gives them the edge. With Real Madrid estimated at around a 48% chance of victory, the most plausible scenario is a Madrid win by a margin that reflects their attacking quality, with a 3-1 scoreline a realistic outcome.