Match Preview

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza has seen plenty of open, dramatic duels between Milan and Lazio over the years, but the numbers ahead of this meeting point to something far more controlled and cagey. With Milan pushing hard near the top of Serie A and Lazio building a reputation as one of the most disciplined defensive sides in the league, this looks set to be a tactical contest where small details and individual quality decide the outcome.

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Milan come into this clash carrying the rhythm of a side that knows how to manage games. Massimiliano Allegri’s team is on a 12 match undefeated run in all competitions, and has not been beaten in 83% of its last 23 Serie A fixtures. That level of consistency has underpinned their rise to second place, with 7 wins, 4 draws and just 1 defeat from 12 league matches, and a goal difference of +9 built on control rather than chaos.

Recent History
Recent games between these two sides suggests there is little to separate them on the day. In the last 3 meetings in all competitions, Milan have taken 1 win, Lazio have 1 win, and there has been 1 draw. However, when the venue shifts to San Siro the balance tilts. Milan have won 62% of their last 13 home matches against Lazio, and in 4 of the last 6 home meetings they have won by at least 2 goals, pointing to a pattern where Milan’s structure and wide threats tend to stretch the visitors more than in Rome.

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Allegri’s current Milan, though, are not living off historical dominance. Their recent form backs up their league position. Over the last 6 matches in all competitions they have 3 wins and 3 draws, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding 1. At home they look even more assured: in the last 3 games at San Siro they have 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring 1.67 goals per match and conceding 1, while averaging 16.67 total shots and 6.33 shots on target. Those numbers describe a side that regularly creates enough to edge tight contests, even if it rarely runs away with them.

Longer term trends strongly favour Milan in front of their own posts. They have been undefeated in 80% of their last 15 home matches in all competitions and kept clean sheets in 42% of their last 12 at San Siro. In the league, they have won 10 of their last 20 home Serie A games and stayed undefeated in 12 of their last 15. Combine that with a 39% rate of wins by 2 or more goals across their last 23 matches in all competitions, and it is clear why Milan are viewed as one of the most reliable home performers in Italy.

Recent Form
Lazio arrive with a different type of strength. Igor Lasicki’s side sits eighth in Serie A with 5 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 12 matches, but the goal data is striking: 15 scored and only 9 conceded, the same defensive record as Milan. Across their last 6 matches in all competitions Lazio have 3 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat, yet they have averaged only 0.83 goals scored per match while conceding a tiny 0.33. That defensive resilience is further highlighted by an average of 10.5 shots per game and 4.5 on target, suggesting measured attacking play rather than full throttle football.

On the road, however, there are warning signs for the visitors. Lazio are winless in 86% of their last 7 away matches in all competitions and have lost 3 of their last 6 away games. The defensive base travels well, with clean sheets in 50% of their last 12 away fixtures, but that has not consistently translated into victories. Their last 3 away matches bring 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with no goals scored and an average of 0.67 conceded. It paints the picture of a side that can frustrate opponents but struggles to convert rare chances into decisive moments away from Rome.

Probable Lineups

The tactical battle is already sketched out by their shapes. Milan have repeatedly used a 3-5-2 in recent outings, giving Allegri an extra central defender and a strong platform in midfield. Mike Maignan remains the undisputed number one, shielded most consistently by Koni De Winter, Matteo Gabbia and Strahinja Pavlović as a back three. Ahead of them, Alexis Saelemaekers and Davide Bartesaghi offer width from wing back, while Youssouf Fofana and Luka Modrić set the tempo inside, usually joined by Samuele Ricci as the more energetic link. In attack, Rafael Leão and Christopher Nkunku have been the preferred front two, combining Leão’s direct running with Nkunku’s movement between the lines.

Injuries should not force major adjustments for Milan. Santiago Gimenez remains out and Zachary Athekame is also sidelined, but neither has been central to Allegri’s recent starting elevens in this particular system. With the unbeaten run stretching across 12 matches in all competitions and clean sheets appearing regularly at San Siro, there is little incentive to move away from a settled 3-5-2.

Milan Lineup:

Goalkeeper: Mike Maignan

Defenders: Koni De Winter, Matteo Gabbia, Strahinja Pavlović

Midfielders: Alexis Saelemaekers, Davide Bartesaghi, Youssouf Fofana, Luka Modrić, Samuele Ricci

Attackers: Rafael Leão, Christopher Nkunku

Lazio are far more predictable in shape, with a 4-3-3 used consistently. Ivan Provedel anchors the side in goal, with Manuel Lazzari and Adam Marušić operating as full backs and Mario Gila Fuentes partnering Alessio Romagnoli in central defence. The midfield three of Mattéo Guendouzi, Reda Belahyane and Toma Bašić has started together in each of the last three matches, and up front Gustav Isaksen and Mattia Zaccagni flank Boulaye Dia as a mobile front line. Injuries to Samuel Gigot and Nicolò Rovella remove two potential rotation options, but they do not break the core structure that has delivered 7 undefeated results in Lazio’s last 8 matches in all competitions.

Lazio Lineup:

Goalkeeper: Ivan Provedel

Defenders: Manuel Lazzari, Adam Marušić, Mario Gila Fuentes, Alessio Romagnoli

Midfielders: Mattéo Guendouzi, Reda Belahyane, Toma Bašić

Attackers: Gustav Isaksen, Mattia Zaccagni, Boulaye Dia

Prediction
All of this points towards a tight contest where Milan’s home strength and slightly greater attacking output meet Lazio’s compact 4-3-3 and resilient away defence. Milan have not been defeated in 82% of their last 28 matches in all competitions and Lazio have avoided defeat in 7 of their last 8, yet Lazio’s travel record and lack of goals on the road are difficult to ignore. With both sides conceding well under a goal per game in the league and Lazio’s away matches often producing few chances, a low scoring contest looks likely. The most plausible scenario is a controlled Milan performance, edging the game 1-0, with under 2.5 total goals and a home win the most probable outcome, roughly around a 40% chance of Milan prevailing by that narrow margin.