Match Preview

Two of Europe’s most free‑flowing sides cross paths at the Emirates as Arsenal and Bayern Munich bring imposing form, sharp attacking numbers and long unbeaten runs into a group-stage clash that already feels like a measure of where both projects truly stand.

This meeting drops at a time when both clubs are operating close to full throttle. Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have strung together a 15 match unbeaten streak in all competitions, while Vincent Kompany’s Bayern arrive on an 18 match unbeaten run that has reinforced their reputation as one of the continent’s most ruthless outfits. Both sit on four wins from four in this Champions League campaign, each with a goal difference of +11, and the numbers point strongly toward a match shaped by front-foot football rather than caution.

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Recent History
The recent Champions League history between Arsenal and Bayern has often leaned toward the German side, but the specific record at the Emirates is more balanced than some might remember. In the last three home matches for Arsenal against Bayern, the return is one win, one draw and one loss. That split underlines how fine the margins have been in north London. Arsenal have shown they can punch through Bayern’s back line at home, but they have also been vulnerable to the visitors’ attacking surges, with three defeats by 2+ goals across their last six meetings overall against the German champions.

Arsenal’s current form, however, looks far more robust than during some of those past encounters. Across their last six matches in all competitions, Arsenal have five wins and one draw, scoring 2.33 goals per match and conceding only 0.5. They average 14.33 total shots and 6.5 shots on target per game in that spell, alongside a commanding 57.17% possession. At the Emirates, the numbers are even stronger: three straight home wins, again with 2.33 goals scored per match but only 0.33 conceded, and over 55% of the ball. In both all-competition and Champions League specific trends, Arsenal’s home is a difficult place to visit, with 85% of their last 20 home matches in the Champions League ending without defeat and 14 clean sheets in that span.

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Overall Performance
Those defensive figures are bolstered by their Champions League record this season: four wins from four, 11 goals scored and none conceded. That is an average of 2.75 goals scored per game with an average goals against column that sits at 0. This blend of attacking productivity and defensive organisation is reflected in broader trends too, with Arsenal winning 11 of their last 12 in all competitions and winning by 2+ goals in 67% of those. Arteta’s side are not just edging matches; they are often settling them with authority.

Bayern’s metrics are just as imposing, and in the final third they look even more explosive. Over their last six matches in all competitions, Bayern have five wins and one draw, averaging 3.33 goals scored and 1 conceded. They are generating 17.33 shots per match, with 6.83 on target, and enjoying 63% possession. Even though the provided short-sample “home” numbers are slightly lower, their broader trends tell a clear story: Bayern have won 93% of their last 15 matches in all competitions and are undefeated in 19 of their last 20, with 60% of their last 30 wins across all tournaments coming by margins of 2+ goals.

In the Champions League specifically, Bayern look like seasoned operators. Across their last 40 matches in the competition they have 27 wins, and in their most recent 15 they have gone undefeated in 13. Half of their last 12 Champions League victories have been by at least 2 goals. That efficiency is already visible in this season’s group campaign, where they match Arsenal’s four wins from four while outscoring them slightly with 14 goals, an average of 3.5 per match. Their defence has been tested more often than Arsenal’s, with 3 goals conceded at 0.75 per game, but the attack consistently bails them out.

Team news will shape how both coaches set up. Arsenal are without Riccardo Calafiori and Gabriel Magalhães, both sidelined, which disrupts what had been a very stable left-sided defensive structure. Even so, Arteta has leaned on a 4-2-3-1 in two of the last three matches and a 4-3-3 once, with David Raya, Jurriën Timber and William Saliba starting all three. With Gabriel unavailable, Piero Hincapié is the natural candidate to slot in as the left sided centre back, while Ben White is likely to be trusted at right back to add further defensive security.

In midfield, Martín Zubimendi and Declan Rice have repeatedly anchored the centre, with Eberechi Eze and Leandro Trossard prominent higher up the pitch and Bukayo Saka a near automatic choice. Given the patterns of selection and the need for control against Bayern’s central power, a 4-2-3-1 looks the most probable shape.

Arsenal probable XI:
Goalkeeper: David Raya
Defenders: Ben White, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Piero Hincapié
Midfielders: Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Eberechi Eze, Leandro Trossard
Attackers: Mikel Merino

Bayern have more high profile absentees, with Min jae Kim, Alphonso Davies and Jamal Musiala ruled out. Even so, their recent lineups under Kompany have been relatively stable. Manuel Neuer is the clear first choice in goal, and the last three matches strongly suggest a 4-2-3-1 with Dayot Upamecano and Jonathan Tah as the centre back pairing. With Davies missing, Josip Stanišić and Konrad Laimer have split full back duties, and that pairing is likely to continue in north London.

Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlović have often formed the double pivot, with Leon Goretzka rotating in. Ahead of them, Michael Olise and Serge Gnabry offer dynamism between the lines and out wide, while Luis Díaz stretches play on the flank and Harry Kane remains the focal point up front. The absence of Musiala reduces some of the dribbling threat between the lines, but the attacking quartet still carries a lot of creativity and goal threat.

Bayern Munich probable XI:
Goalkeeper: Manuel Neuer
Defenders: Konrad Laimer, Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Tah, Josip Stanišić
Midfielders: Joshua Kimmich, Aleksandar Pavlović, Michael Olise, Nicolas Jackson, Leon Goretzka
Attackers: Harry Kane

Prediction
With both sides entering in prolific form, and with neither built to sit deep for long spells, the data strongly suggests a match with goals at both ends. Arsenal have not conceded in this Champions League campaign but now face a Bayern side averaging 3.5 goals per group game, while Bayern’s attacking tilt can leave space for Arsenal’s sharp transitions. The algorithm leans toward a high scoring stalemate, with over 2.5 goals and a 2-2 scoreline flagged as the most likely outcome, and the overall probability model giving the draw a 37% chance.