Jagiellonia vs Fiorentina: Prediction, Preview, lineups

Polish resilience faces Italian craft as Jagiellonia and Fiorentina square up in the Knockout Round Play-offs, a pairing that pits a formidable home record against a squad built for European nights. The numbers point to contrasts rather than reputation, and that balance could define the first leg.

Recent Form
Jagiellonia arrive with stability. Across their last six matches in all competitions they have two wins, three draws and one loss, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. At home over the last three, they have been assertive, producing 17 total shots per match with 7.33 on target, scoring 2.0 goals per game and conceding 1.0, all with 49.33% possession. The blend of volume and accuracy suggests they create enough to trouble visiting defences.

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Fiorentina’s last six in all competitions show two wins, one draw and three losses. They average 1.5 goals scored and 1.83 conceded, generating 12.5 shots and four on target per match with 47.83% possession. It has been a mixed run that leans more on individual quality than sustained control, and recent defensive leaks have kept games open.

Overall Performance
Jagiellonia navigated the League Stage efficiently with two wins, three draws and one loss from six matches, scoring five and conceding four for a +1 goal difference. The averages underline a compact approach at this level, with 0.83 goals for and 0.67 against per game, and their 17th-place finish masks how difficult they have been to beat.

Fiorentina finished 15th in the League Stage with a bolder profile: three wins and three losses, eight goals scored and five conceded for a +3 goal difference. Their output of 1.33 goals per game alongside 0.83 conceded reflects a side that tends to decide matches rather than drift into stalemates.

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Recent History
Within this competition, Jagiellonia have been notably hard to shift. They are undefeated in 20 of their last 24 Conference League matches. At home, they have avoided defeat in 11 of their last 12 in the tournament, winning eight of those and keeping clean sheets in 58%. Six of those home wins were by two or more goals, showing that when momentum swings their way, they press the advantage.

Fiorentina’s Conference League record remains strong. They have won 60% of their last 20 matches in the competition and are undefeated in 24 of their last 30. However, three losses across their most recent six in the tournament hint at greater variability compared with earlier campaigns.

Home and Away Trends
Across all competitions, Jagiellonia are unbeaten in their last five matches and have avoided defeat in 10 of their last 12 at home. Looking longer term, they have kept clean sheets in 40% of their last 30 home games and won 10 of their last 15 at home, with a consistent shot-on-target output in familiar surroundings.

Fiorentina’s away form is more concerning. They have lost 16 of their last 30 matches overall and eight of their last 15 away. They are winless in 81% of their last 16 away matches in all competitions, a trend that contrasts with their steadier European record but remains a question mark heading into this leg.

Probable Lineups
Jagiellonia are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1 with Slawomir Abramowicz in goal; Ándy Pelmard, Bernardo Vital, Norbert Wojtuszek and Bartlomiej Wdowik in defence; Taras Romanczuk and Bartosz Mazurek holding midfield; Álex Pozo, Jesús Imaz and Kamil Jozwiak supporting Afimico Pululu.

Fiorentina are expected to use a 4-3-3 with David de Gea in goal; Dodô, Marin Pongracic, Pietro Comuzzo and Fabiano Parisi at the back; Rolando Mandragora, Nicolò Fagioli and Marco Brescianini in midfield; and Jack Harrison, Moise Kean and Manor Solomon leading the attack.

Team News
Fiorentina will be without Albert Gudmundsson, who remains sidelined with an ankle issue and is therefore excluded from the projected starting XI.

Prediction
Jagiellonia’s strong home metrics in this competition meet a Fiorentina side with higher attacking peaks but patchier recent form and weaker away trends. With both teams averaging around 1.5 goals per match across their last six, a balanced encounter is likely. The algorithm leans toward an away win at 45%, and a 1–2 scoreline fits the data-driven profile, with Jagiellonia creating chances at home and Fiorentina’s individual quality making the difference.