Kasimpasa vs Fatih Karagumruk: Prediction, Preview, lineups

When two sides battling similar difficulties meet at the Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu on February 16, the margin for error becomes razor-thin.Both Kasımpaşa SK and Fatih Karagümrük head into this Süper Lig encounter under pressure, desperate for points and searching for a result that could shift the tone of their season.

Their most recent meeting was settled by the smallest of details.

Back in September 2025, Kasımpaşa snatched a 1–0 away victory, benefitting from a Muhammed İyyad Kadıoğlu own goal.

Fatih Karagümrük dominated possession with 72%, fired off 14 shots—three on target—and produced 63 dangerous attacks.

Yet despite controlling nearly every metric, they walked away empty-handed.

That match summed up much of Karagümrük’s campaign: territorial dominance undone by defensive lapses.

Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, showed resilience and efficiency, creating just eight attempts and forcing the goalkeeper into action only once, but still doing enough to secure all three points.

Since then, both teams have struggled to gain traction.

Kasımpaşa are winless in their last eight matches across all competitions, picking up only two draws from their previous six fixtures.

Their attacking problems are evident, averaging just 0.33 goals per match during that run.

However, defensively at home they have shown improvement, conceding only once across their last three matches on their own turf.

After 21 league games, Kasımpaşa sit 16th in the Süper Lig with three wins and seven draws.

Their return of 16 goals scored and 29 conceded highlights the challenge they face, with relegation pressure steadily increasing.

Looking at longer-term trends, concerns deepen.

Kasımpaşa have failed to win 81% of their last 31 home matches across all competitions, while half of their previous 30 games overall have ended in defeat.

Still, there is some encouragement: they have beaten Karagümrük twice in the last four head-to-head meetings.

Fatih Karagümrük’s form offers little relief.

They have managed just one win in their last six matches, alongside one draw and four losses.

While they average 1.17 goals per game, they concede 2.17, exposing persistent defensive weaknesses.

Away from home, the picture is even bleaker, with 13 winless results in their last 15 league trips.

In the standings, Karagümrük sit 18th with only three wins from 21 matches and a goal difference of minus 21.

Sixty percent of their last 20 league games have ended in defeat, and they are winless in 23 of their last 28 Süper Lig fixtures.

Heavy losses have also crept in, with 38% of their last 13 matches ending in defeats by two or more goals.

Both sides must also cope with key absences.

Kasımpaşa will be without Haris Hajradinović, Erdem Çetinkaya, and Cláudio Winck, while Fatih Karagümrük are missing Muhammed Kadıoğlu, Tiago Çukur, Daniel Johnson, and João Camacho.

Probable Lineups

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Kasımpaşa SK: Andreas Gianniotis; Nicholas Opoku, Godfried Frimpong, Rodrigo Becão, Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi; Andri Fannar Baldursson, Mortadha Ben Ouanes, İrfan Can Kahveci, Kerem Demirbay, Fousseni Diabaté; Kubilay Kanatsızkuş.

Fatih Karagümrük:

Ivo Grbić; Ricardo Esgaio, Davide Biraschi, Çağtay Kurukalıp, Filip Mladenović; Matías Kranevitter, Sam Larsson, Berkay Özcan, Barış Kalaycı, Shavy Babicka; Serginho.
Statistically, Kasımpaşa’s ability to remain compact at home could prove decisive.

While both sides are vulnerable, Karagümrük’s ongoing struggles away from home tilt the balance toward the hosts.

With a projected 42% probability of victory, Kasımpaşa have a realistic chance to end their winless run, ease relegation fears, and finally convert defensive resilience into a much-needed win.