Correct Score Predictions
Statistical analysis using Poisson distribution & team performance data
Melbourne City
VS
Auckland
1.05
Expected Goals (Home)
1.35
Expected Goals (Away)
How it works: We use Poisson distribution based on team statistics (goals scored/conceded per game) to calculate the probability of each possible score. Higher percentages indicate more likely outcomes.
Most Likely Scores
TOP PICK
1-1
12.9%
Draw
0-1
12.2%
Away Win
1-0
9.5%
Home Win
0-0
9.1%
Draw
1-2
8.7%
Away Win
0-2
8.3%
Away Win
2-1
6.8%
Home Win
2-0
5.0%
Home Win
2-2
4.6%
Draw
1-3
3.9%
Away Win
0-3
3.7%
Away Win
3-1
2.4%
Home Win
Home Win Scores
1-0
9.5%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.0%
3-1
2.4%
3-0
1.8%
3-2
1.6%
4-1
0.6%
4-0
0.5%
4-2
0.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
5-0
0.1%
Draw Scores
1-1
12.9%
0-0
9.1%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Away Win Scores
0-1
12.2%
1-2
8.7%
0-2
8.3%
1-3
3.9%
0-3
3.7%
2-3
2.1%
1-4
1.3%
0-4
1.3%
2-4
0.7%
1-5
0.4%
0-5
0.3%
3-4
0.2%
Team Statistics (Based on Season 2025/2026)
Melbourne City
Matches Played
10
Goals Scored
7
Goals Conceded
8
Avg Goals/Game
0.70
Avg Conceded/Game
0.80
Auckland
Matches Played
10
Goals Scored
19
Goals Conceded
14
Avg Goals/Game
1.90
Avg Conceded/Game
1.40